Tuesday, 24 February 2009

European Parliament elections 2009 (55): Combined opinion poll predicts election outcome (supplemented)

Thanks to a combination of 19 opinion polls published by EUobserver, there is the first real outcome prediction of the 2009 EP elections. In fact, only 70 seats out of 736 will be truly competed, for the others predictions are as follows:

EPP: 265 seats (36%)
PES: 195 seats (26.5%)
ALDE: 95 seats (12.9%)
GUE-NGL: 40 seats (5.4%)
Greens: 35 seats (4.8%)
UEN: 35 seats (4.8%)

This will again give a large majority to the PES/EPP "coalition", leaving things as they are, no matter if more eurosceptics (e.g. Libertas) enter the European Parliament.

And beside the boringness of these predictions, this is a clear sign that past fears about the radicalisation of the European Parliament are unfounded.

Under the category "European parliament elections 2009" I am following up national and European activities on the path to the European Parliament elections 2009.

For an overview over all articles in this category have a look at the overview article.

For the five newest post see also the sidebar.


Antal Dániel said...

According to the first Hungarian mandate prediction, the likely outcome in Hungary is Fidesz (EPP) 12, Socialist Party (PES) 6, SzDSz (ALDE) 2, Hungarian Democratic Forum (EPP) 1. The Hungarian far-left has never taken any election hurdle since the fall of Communism, and the far-right has scored 5.6% only in 1998. However, if the turnout will be very low, it may happen that a new far-right party, Jobbik will pick up a seat. I cannot verify the country results as EUObserver does not have a break down but I think these results are very much in line with your opinion.