Tuesday, 7 April 2009

European Parliament elections 2009 (77): Weekly polls on predict09.eu

A new initiative - http://www.predict09.eu - has entered the scene making outcome predictions for the upcoming EP elections based on national opinion polls and a statistical prediction model using experiences from past European Parliament elections.

The results they display on their main page differ visibly from the results of a combined opinion poll published in February, so the mathematical model used seems to have an effect on the predictions.

It's political science, so we'll see whether it works or not. If it doesn't work, we'll get good explanations why. That's political science.

Update: A critical account from Belgium.

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Under the category "European parliament elections 2009" I am following up national and European activities on the path to the European Parliament elections 2009.

For an overview over all articles in this category have a look at the overview article.

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6 comments:

Stéphane Laborde said...

Great Blog !!! Thank you for that work, I put you in my favorites blogs to read every day :)

Anonymous said...

For Poland he didn't even have up to date info on which parties on the left are running. But anyway I found one of Hix's conclusions during the press conference very interesting: that for the first time one of the big groups in the EP will have a large representation from a new state (Poland) which might change the color of EPP politics. Exactly to which shade he did not say

Macarena Rodríguez said...

Thanks Julien for this wonderful link! I translate what you said into Spanish and recently, I made a post with you opinion on this poll and explaing the website Predic09.eu

emilio said...

Hola Julien: Mi inglés noes bueno, pero te conozco por el blog de Macarena. Ssaludos: emilio

Julien Frisch said...

Salud Emilio, y gracias por los soludos. Entiendo el español pero no he scrito muchos palabras en tu idoma en los ultimos años... ;-)

emilio said...

Pues aquí tienes una buena oportunidad para practicar:)
Saludos: Emilio